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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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